Here is an interesting article that has very useful information for any investor in the real estate market. The article written by Robert L. Cain highly emphasizes knowing your market and making a plan for your investment. However, when planning for the future investment still recognize and be able to adjust for unknown or unseen variables that may arise down the line. Mr. Cain’s perspective is both a logical and resourceful one focusing on making yourself the expert in your own market and realizing the expert’s opinion is sometimes skewed.
Planning Against the Experts’ Predictions
By Robert L. Cain, Copyright 2009 Cain Publications, Inc.
At the beginning of the 19th Century, the French scientist, Marquis de Laplace decided that since scientific laws enabled us to accurately predict the movements of the sun, stars and planets, we should also be able to predict everything in the universe, human behavior included. Some people still believe that. Albert Einstein, took a different approach when he wrote, “The universe is not only queerer than we suppose. It’s queerer than we can suppose.”
Put ten MBAs in a room (they still believe Laplace) and tell them to predict the future of the economy and especially rental property in America, and they will come up not with ten different answers, but twenty. Why? Each of them will hedge his or her bets by predicting a variant of his or her first prediction. Just look at what experts have done to us so far.
Their methods provide us a glimpse into the gross unpredictability of human behavior and what happens when we rely on experts’ advice to do our real estate investment planning. Five years ago, the experts were predicting, and using other people’s money to back up their prediction, that the economy would continue to boom sometime through the year 3257, that the Dow would hit 13 billion, and that we would have trouble filling all the jobs that would open up. That worked, didn’t it?
Instead, the economy boomed until sometime in the year 2006, the Dow dropped to 6627 from a high of 14,067 (down 53 percent) and unemployment jumped to around 15 percent counting those who are out of work and have quit looking. Plus, the housing market collapsed and foreclosures rose to the worst since the Great Depression. Read the rest of this entry »